The gold market ended the first half of the year significantly lower than it did at the end of last year, and weak investor sentiment suggests further downside is likely in the near term as the precious metal faces challenging headwinds. awake.
Christopher Vecchio, head of forex and futures markets at Tastytrade.com , said that it is not surprising that investors are moving away from gold as a solid economic backdrop continues to support risk assets. .
According to him, there are many concerns in the market, but so far none of them have materialized. So investors feel more comfortable taking on more risk."
The expert said that while gold appears to hold support around $1,900 per ounce, any rally is becoming more of a profit-taking opportunity than a sustained rally. “Gold is facing a tough environment as real yields rise and will remain for a long time,” Vecchio said.
This week, 21 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco survey. In which, only 38% of respondents forecast the market may increase. Five analysts (24%) expect gold prices to be flat, the rest are forecast to decline.
While optimism and pessimism among Wall Street analysts balance, retail investors maintain their bearish outlook. Of the 845 participants in the online poll, only 37% expect gold to rise next week, 44% see the precious metal down and 19% expect the market to move sideways.
Kitco's gold price forecast for the week of July 3-7. Photo: Kitco News
Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, is bullish on gold due to the recent short-term shift in currency markets. "I expect a stronger dollar and higher US interest rates. However, gold's momentum indicators seem to be bottoming out and technical indicators suggest that gold could recover soon," the expert said. said.
However, Chandler thinks he prefers to hold a short position and can do so if gold recovers to around $1,920-1,930.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, holds a cautious view on the upside. He explained that although gold prices may rise slightly next week, the precious metal is still caught in a tug-of-war between the influence of many factors in the market.
"Still short-term risks remain as the gold market does not appear to be fully priced in terms of future rate hikes in the US and elsewhere, while the massive US Government financial need will draw down liquidity." account and hurt gold," he said.
Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com , also thinks that improving economic conditions will continue to put pressure on gold prices. "A strong economy, low unemployment and rising yields will confirm to the Fed that the US economy can absorb further rate hikes," the expert said. "This will put pressure on gold prices," he added.
On the contrary, however, one factor supporting gold prices is increased geopolitical uncertainty. Most bullish gold analysts have noted that increasing uncertainty and risk will support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Minh Son ( according to Kitco )
