Exports were pointed out by HSBC as one of three economic bright spots in the newly released report. November marked the third consecutive month of export growth over the same period, after a particularly stagnant period.
HSBC said that, although the cause was partly due to the base effect, electronics and machinery exports drove these improvements. Although textiles and footwear are still stagnant, other product groups such as computer-related components (up 20.2%) and machinery (up 5%) have "stable and encouraging signs". . Agricultural products also grew strongly, supporting the improvement of year-end export results, although still modest.
Import and export of goods at Tan Vu port - Hai Phong in July 2023. Photo: Giang Huy
"However, it is still necessary to be cautious about the trade outlook because demand for goods in major partners is still difficult," HSBC experts assessed. In fact, Vietnam's purchasing managers index (PMI) continued to decline to 47.3 (below 50 reflects a decline in production) in November. Both output and new orders shrunk.
Meanwhile, domestic operations continue to be a strong pillar. The easing of visa policies from August has promoted a steady recovery in international tourist arrivals. In November alone, Vietnam welcomed more than one million foreign visitors, reaching this milestone for the fifth consecutive month. With a total of 11.2 million visitors since the beginning of the year, the target of 12-13 million visitors this year has been achieved.
However, tourism also has points to pay attention to. Recovery of Chinese visitors is only at 30% of 2019. In addition, competition in tourism within ASEAN "is becoming tense". After Thailand waived visas for Chinese and Indian tourists, Malaysia was the next country to apply this policy.
Finally, inflation generally remained under control. Total inflation in November only increased by 0.2% compared to October, and decreased to 3.4% over the same period in 2022. Domestic rice prices continue to be under pressure from rising international rice prices but meat prices The decrease in pigs is more than enough to compensate for the increase in rice prices.
According to HSBC, positive signs such as inflation seem to be under control and the economic outlook, especially on the external front, is showing some stability. However, that does not mean that the risk of price increases has completely disappeared.
The recent increase in electricity prices will usually be reflected in the consumer price index (CPI) one month late. Although it is necessary to pay attention to price increases such as food and energy prices, the bank forecasts that the State Bank will keep the policy interest rate stable at 4.5% throughout 2024.
Vien Dong
